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Bubble Map Update: How the Oil Spill Impacts the California Supply Chain
June 27, 2015 The June Bubble Map shows crude oil prices continuing the upward trend from last month. WTI is up $4 since our last post at $63 per barrel on June 25th. The WTI/Brent differential has...
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Bubble Map Update: The Crude-by-Rail “Arb” to California is Closed
August 5, 2015 The August Bubble Map shows crude oil prices trending down since we last checked in at the end of June. WTI is down $7 since our last post at $46 per barrel on August 4th. The WTI/Brent...
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Bubble Map Update: Torrance Refinery Troubles Lead to SJVH Discount
October 16, 2015 The October Bubble Map shows WTI holding steady at $46 since our last blog in August. The WTI/Brent differential has narrowed to $2 over WTI. The Bakken discount has also narrowed to...
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Bubble Map Update: Drop in Oil Prices Takes the Steam out of the Mid Continent
December 10, 2015 The December Bubble Map shows crude oil prices dropping overall while differentials to WTI have remained relatively stable. Prices on December 9th show WTI dropping from $46 to $37...
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Bubble Map Update: Crumbling Crude Prices Flip Logistics
January 18, 2016 The first Bubble Map of 2016 shows crude oil prices continuing to fall. Prices on January 15th have WTI dropping from $37 to $29 since our last blog in December. The Brent price has...
View ArticleRecap from Stillwater’s 2016 Annual Meeting
May 2, 2016 On April 2nd Stillwater held our 6th Annual Meeting in Irvine, CA. The Annual Meeting originated in 2011 with a handful of people sitting around a kitchen table discussing the future of the...
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LCFS Credit Price: What’s behind the nose dive?
August 9, 2016 Back in February, LCFS credit prices were trading for about $130 per metric tonne (MT). Prices were fairly steady through the spring, and then something happened in July to make the...
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Bubble Map Update: Imports on the Rise
October 12, 2016 This month in Wisdom from the Downstream Wizard we thought it might be a good idea to dust off the Bubble Map and take a look at the differentials around the country. Back in January...
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How much “Ethanol Free” gasoline is out there?
November 15, 2016 By David Hackett The Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requires increasingly high levels of renewable fuels to be blended into transportation fuel. Ethanol provides the largest...
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Bubble Map Update 2017: My How Things Have Changed
January 25, 2017 This month, we decided to take a look back at January 2016 and compare it to our first Bubble Map of 2017. Last year at this time oil prices were in the basement. In our January 15,...
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May Bubble Map: MidContinent Crudes Getting to the Coast Lead to Tighter...
May 14, 2013 We’ve given the Bubble Map a fresh look for spring. It’s a little less busy, but still contains the same great information. Notice the two price differentials for Bakken, one at the...
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June Bubble Map: Rail is the Big Winner
June 5, 2013 In the June Bubble Map we see some interesting differentials west of the Bubble. The WTI-San Joaquin Valley Heavy differential is the tightest we’ve seen…ever. SJVH is just a $2 premium...
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Bubble Map Update: Bakken at Clearbrook Selling at a Premium
June 17, 2013 The June 14th Bubble Map shows some big changes in the Bakken at Clearbrook price. The differential at Clearbrook has been volatile since we last checked in. It peaked at a $3.50...
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Bubble Map Update for July
July 25, 2013 Mexican Maya differential returns to the latest edition of the Bubble Map! The last time Maya appeared on the Bubble Map, way back in April, it was $7 over. We found a new...
View ArticleWhat We Did On Our Summer Vacation
September 9, 2013 Well, the kids are back at school and we’re all back working away. The kids will be asked, “What did you do this summer?” Our kids will be writing about Disneyland, stand-up paddle...
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A Veerry Scaarrry October Bubble Map
October 18, 2013 Well…not really. But the Bakken discount has widened since we last checked in. On October 16, Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $12 under WTI. LLS was priced $1 over WTI and...
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The Last Bubble Map of 2013 – ANS Skyrockets
December 12, 2013 The last Bubble Map of the year shows the Bakken discount has narrowed since we last checked in. On December 9th, Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $10 under WTI. But the WCS...
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The Spring Bubble Map: Pipelines Help to Ease the Bottleneck
March 23, 2014 The latest Bubble Map shows the Bakken discount has narrowed considerably since we last checked in. On March 20th Bakken at Clearbrook, MN was posted at $4 under WTI. The WCS discount...
View ArticleCasino Royale: California’s Fuels Under the Cap Program
August 19, 2014 by David Hackett Market participants are starting to speculate about the next phase of Cap & Trade under California’s AB32 the Global Warming Solutions Act. That phase, Fuels Under...
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Lone Star State Makes it Inside the Bubble
September 26, 2014 Crude oil prices in the Texas tight oil producing regions are suffering from the same over-supply problem as the Mid Continent. There’s a lot of crude oil in Texas and prices...
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ANS Feels the Squeeze on the West Coast
October 30, 2014 On Monday with WTI priced at $81 per barrel, Eagle Ford and WTI-Midland were listed at parity with WTI. Bakken at Clearbrook came in at $13 under WTI. While the Western Canadian...
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Very Merry Bubble Map: A Gift at the Gas Station
December 11, 2014 Filling up the Stillwater Honda Odyssey cost a very jolly $45 this week, the delightful effect of a glut of crude oil supply. The drop in prices at the pump is giving consumers a...
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Bubble Map Update: Crude Oil Oversupply Leads to Creative Storage Solutions
January 20, 2015 2015 kicks off with crude oil prices continuing to fall, having dropped over 50 percent since last June. It’s great news for drivers as retail prices have dropped to a nationwide...
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Bubble Map Update: Is the Discount Party Over?
February 25, 2015 The February Bubble Map finds crude oil prices creeping back up. While the WTI price remains at $49 per barrel, Brent has risen to $9 over WTI. The spike in the price of Brent can...
View ArticleNotes from the AFPM Annual Meeting
April 14, 2015 by David Hackett The AFPM Annual Meeting was back in San Antonio this year. Every year I find this four-day event educational, fun and exhausting. It seems like every day goes from 7 AM...
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Bubble Map Update: Crude Prices Up Slightly as Production Slows
April 15, 2015 The April Bubble Map finds crude oil prices on a slight uptick. WTI broke the $50 threshold and was priced at $52 per barrel on April 13th. The WTI/Brent differential has tightened to...
View ArticleThoughts on an Interview with KPIX on Imported Canadian Crude Oil to the SF Bay
April 28, 2015 by David Hackett One of the exciting parts of my job is talking to reporters about trends in the transportation energy market. Sometimes these interviews even make it to television. For...
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Bubble Map Update: Supply Disruptions Raise Prices in California
May 19, 2015 The May Bubble Map shows crude oil prices continuing on the upward trend from last month. WTI is up $7 since our last post, at $59 per barrel on May 18th. The WTI/Brent differential...
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After the Deluge: Gasoline supply constraints following Harvey and Irma
September 13, 2017 Our hearts go out to our friends and colleagues in Texas and Florida as they start to rebuild after the destruction from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Stillwater’s Houston-area...
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Bubble Map Update: Post-Hurricane Price Differentials Drive Exports
October 10, 2017 This month we check back in on our crude oil spot prices in bubble map form – the first time we’ve done so since January. On October 10th spot WTI was quoted at $51 per barrel, with...
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Innovation in Transportation Energy
Image: Reuters October 9, 2017 by Dave Hackett Stillwater has always been interested in technology development in the transportation fuel space. We help clients figure out how their new fuels or...
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Bubble Map Update: Restricted Pipeline Capacity Leads to Big WCS discounts
* Reflects anecdotal prices not posted prices The last time we checked in on crude oil spot prices in bubble map form, the map showed evidence of the lingering effects of recovery from Hurricane...
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Bubble Map Update: Trapped in the Permian!
The last time we checked in on crude oil spot prices in bubble map form, the map showed how restricted pipeline capacity had led to big Western Canadian Select (WCS) discounts. Now, four months...
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Projecting the Costs of California’s Cap & Trade and Low Carbon Fuel Standard...
July 25, 2018 By Jim Mladenik and Kendra Seymour Showing the line-item cost to consumers of carbon-reduction programs assists legislators in crafting effective policy and helps fuel consumers make...
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Has California Gasoline Demand Peaked?
by Dave Hackett Stillwater is often asked to provide forecasts for petroleum demand. Clients use these forecasts to understand how the market is likely to change. For the last four or five years, we...
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West Coast Crude Oil Supply
November 1, 2018 by David Hackett Last month, our friends at RBN Energy held a conference in Houston (of course) to bring together people interested in the development of crude oil, natural gas and...
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Water Management in the Downstream
February 20, 2019 by E.J. Ledet Water contamination incidents in the transportation fuels supply chain can have a dramatic effect on fuel quality. Fortunately, such incidents can be prevented with the...
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Energy Outlook Shows Decline in Hydrocarbon Fuel Demand after 2030
March 1, 2019 By John Wolff Anthony Teo discussed DNV GL’s 2018 Energy Outlook during the Liquefied Gas Senior Executive Forum in Houston which was hosted by the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) on December 4,...
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How the Midwest bomb cyclone could impact gasoline prices throughout the U.S.
April 8, 2019 By Barry Schaps Source: National Weather Service Whoever heard of a bomb cyclone weather event? In case you haven’t, here’s the rundown: A bomb cyclone is the rapid development of a...
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Breaking down California’s gasoline price spike
April 17, 2019 By Kendra Seymour California’s gasoline prices consistently outpace average pump prices across the U.S., but in the past month, Californians have experienced an average price increase of...
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U.S. Refiners Supply Domestic Demand While Significantly Increasing Exports
By Megan Boutwell We first created the graphic below, illustrating the flow of petroleum products in and out of the U.S. by PADD for the year, for a talk at a conference a few years ago. One of our...
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California Gasoline Prices
By Dave Hackett Stillwater has been writing about California gasoline prices for a long time. Because gasoline prices on the West Coast, and in California in particular, tend to be volatile toward the...
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California Gasoline Prices – Part 2
June 26, 2019 By Dave Hackett Last month, I wrote about spot California gasoline prices and promised to write about California retail gasoline prices this month. As explained by my Petroleum Market...
View ArticleWhy Aren’t Refiners Recovering Stationary Source Cap & Trade Costs?
September 20, 2019 by Jeff Kennedy “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” I’m sitting here on a Friday afternoon, contemplating just how true that old adage is. More than 25 years ago,...
View ArticleThe Ultimate E-Ticket: California Gasoline Prices*
October 22, 2019 By Dave Hackett On Monday, October 21, my friends at the California Energy Commission (CEC) released “Additional Analysis on Gasoline Prices in California.” This report is a follow-on...
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An Updated Guide to EPA’s Tier 3 Gasoline Sulfur Standards
January 5, 2020 by Mike Leister and E.J. Ledet Effective January 1, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began requiring all U.S. gasoline to meet an annual 10 parts per million (ppm)...
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California Gasoline Retail Margin Quick to Rise, Slow to Drop
January 10, 2020 By Kendra Seymour In the course of our work, and due to our own curiosity, Stillwater tracks the California gasoline market. We thought our findings might be interesting to our readers...
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95 RON Gasoline and the Political CAFE Ping-Pong Game
January 15, 2020 By Ron Pike In an effort to further reduce hydrocarbon consumption in the U.S., 95 RON (Research Octane Number) gasoline has been suggested as a way to help achieve proposed higher...
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West Coast Gasoline – Inventories Rise, Prices and Crude Runs Drop
April 15, 2020 (This article has been updated from the original April 14th version) By Dave Hackett When was the last time you filled up? For me, it was about a month ago. Since then, I’ve driven maybe...
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West Coast Gasoline – Have we reached the bottom?
May 7, 2020 By Dave Hackett I started the first article in this series on April 15th with a question: “When was the last time you filled up?” Well, I still have not had to fill up either car, but I am...
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